Gujarat

The recently concluded elections in the states of Himachal and gave both - the parties and the people - many lessons in political observation and prediction. Let's have a look on the assembly election results 2017 a little depper to understand its impact on 2019 election. Gujarat, the home turf of the Bharatiya Janata Party mirrored to a large extent the expected trends of  2019, which we can safely say, will be replicated in the rest of the country, plus or minus the unique social mechanics of each state. At the same time, it would do both the diminished-but-not-yet-defeated BJP and the resurgent-but-not-yet-risen Congress, well,  to tread the path of caution. Himachal, on the other hand, has stuck to its tradition of booting out the incumbent. As expected the BJP won well, but here

Exit polls 2017 predict a victory for BJP in Gujarat and Himachal pradesh. Unlike the Opinion poll, which is conducted before the elections and asks the only opinion of the respondent, Exit Polls are conducted just after and during the polling hours. They do not ask for the opinion but asks the actual choice that voter made. Thus, they are far more accurate then Opinion polls but still carry a margin of error. Like Opinion Polls, they too are conducted on a sample representing the whole electorate and thus are supposed the choice of very few in comparison to the actual size of voters. Exit Polls are also very speculative in nature as different agencies and News Channels tend to play with numbers and include their biases as well.The danger and folly of Exit polls were best illustrated in...